Sat 08 2020 09:38:36

Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) -- In July 2020, the average level of consumer prices and tariffs in Uzbekistan decreased by 0.3%, the State Statistics Committee said in a statement.

In January-July 2020, prices and tariffs in the consumer market increased by an average of 4.3%. In annual terms (by July 2019), the average growth in prices for goods and services made up 14.4%.

In July 2019, on average per month, prices for goods and services decreased by 0.4%.

In January-July 2019, goods and services rose in price by an average of 5.2%. In July 2019, compared to July 2018, goods and services increased on average by 13.5 %.

The average monthly CPI growth in January-July 2020 made up 0.6% against 0.7% in the same period in 2019.

The most significant gap in the consolidated CPI versus December of the previous year during January-July 2019 and 2020 was recorded in February (103.1% versus 101.4%, or 1.7 points, respectively), the minimum was in April (105.3 % against 104.5%, or 0.8 points), and in July it made up 0.9 points.

The annual consolidated CPI in July 2020, compared to the same indicator for the previous month, increased by 0.2 points (from 114.2% to 114.4%). At the same time, the CPI for July 2020 compared to July of the previous year was 0.9 points higher than this indicator for July 2019 (14.4% versus 13.5%).

Mass saturation of the market with fruits and vegetables of the new harvest led to a general decline in prices in this group of goods and, as a result, the CPI for food products in July of this year was 98.7%.

Non-food products and paid services to the population rose in price by 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.

Due to the decrease in prices for food products, the consolidated CPI for the month decreased by 0.6 p.p.

The rise in prices for nonfood products added 0.2 p.p. to the consolidated indicator for the month.

The increase in prices and tariffs for services increased the consolidated indicator for the month by an additional 0.1 p.p.

As for the dynamics of the influence of price changes by main groups on the increase or decrease in the consolidated CPI for each month in January-July, then, from January to April of this year, there was a gradual increase in the influence of price changes for food products (from 0.4 p.p. up to 1.4 p.p.) with a relative stability of the influence of non-food products and services. Since May, the seasonal downward trend in prices for fruits and vegetables and, as a consequence, for food products, has made it possible to significantly reduce inflationary pressure in the short term.

In general, in January-July 2020, the level of prices for food products increased by 4.9%, non-food products - by 4.1%, services - by 3.6%.

An assessment of the contribution of price changes, taking into account the share of each enlarged group, showed that in January-July 2020, food products continued to dominate on a monthly basis. Inflationary pressure from price changes on food products during this period gradually increased from 0.4 p.p. (January) to 3.3 p.p. (April), and in May it began to decline and in July it reached 2.1 p.p., despite this maintaining its leadership in terms of influence.

The contribution of the growth in prices for non-food products and paid services to the population in the increase in the aggregate indicator by December 2019 was less pronounced. So, for non-food products, this indicator from January to July increased from 0.1 p.p. up to 1.4 p.p., and for services - from 0.1 p.p. up to 0.8 p.p.

In specific terms, the share of the impact of price changes in food products in July 2020 made up 48.2%, nonfood products - 32.8%, services - 19.0% of the total increase in the consolidated CPI by December 2019.

As for the impact of price changes in the main groups of goods and services on the growth of the consolidated CPI in annual terms, in July this year due to the growth in prices for food products this indicator increased by 8.1 p.p., non-food products - by 3.3 p.p., services - by 3.0 p.p.

In percentage terms, food products accounted for about 56.3% of the total increase in the consolidated CPI by July 2019. The influence of nonfood products and services is approximately in equal proportions and is 22.9% and 20.8%, respectively.

Food products became cheaper by 1.3% over the month. The determining factor in the price dynamics for this group of goods continues to be the seasonal decline in prices for fruits and vegetables. So, excluding price changes for fruits, vegetables and potatoes, the CPI growth for food products for the month made up 0.1%.

Since the beginning of 2020, the average growth in prices for goods in this group made up 4.9% with an average monthly increase of 0.7%. Compared to July 2019, food prices increased by 19.0% on average.

From the main observed groups of food products in July of this year, a decrease in prices for fruits and vegetables (by an average of 7.9%) and eggs (by 2.3%) was registered. Bread products, butter and fats, on the contrary, became more expensive by 0.2%, dairy products, soft drinks - by 0.1%, meat, poultry and fish - by 0.4%, alcoholic beverages, sugar, tea and other food products by 0.2%.

Prices in the catering sector have not changed over the month, but since the beginning of the year they have grown by 6.2%. Compared to the end of 2019, the most significant price increases were recorded for bakery products (11.7%) and eggs (5.6%).

The peak of growth in prices for bakery products during January-July 2020 was registered in April, when prices for goods of this group increased by an average of 4.3%.

The CPI for grain products in July this year to December 2019 made up 11.7% with an average monthly growth of 1.6%.

As for bakery products (including cereals and legumes), higher prices for beans (0.6%) and peas (0.6%) were noted for the month than for other goods in this group. The same goods continue to hold the lead in terms of price growth in January-July of this year. So, since the beginning of the year, buckwheat has become 1.6 times more expensive, beans - 1.4 times.

The most significant monthly rise in prices for meat, poultry and fish was observed from February to April, and their minimum monthly growth was recorded in January, June and July.

The CPI for these products in July this year to December 2019 made up 7.9% with an average monthly growth of 1.1%.

Meat products increased in price by 0.4% on average over the month (7.9% from the beginning of the year). Chicken legs and drumsticks rose in price by -0.3% (4.8%), other poultry meat - by -0.3% (2.7%), live and chilled fish - by -0.1% (10, 1%), boneless beef - by 0.7% (9.1%), other beef - by 0.6% (8.3%), lamb - by 0.7% (11.1%), minced meat - by 0.6% (7.2%). Pork prices remained unchanged for the month, while in seven months they added in price by 7.0%.

The dynamics of egg prices in January-July 2020 was uneven. A monthly decline in prices was recorded in February (by 2.1%), March (by 3.5%) and June (by 2.5%) and July (by 2.3%), and the peak of price growth was in April (8.1%).

The CPI for eggs in July this year against December 2019 made up 5.6% with an average monthly growth of the index by 0.8%.

The dynamics of prices for dairy products in January-July 2020 is characterized by an upward trend. The maximum monthly prices in this group increased in April (2.5%), the minimum - in July (0.1% each). The CPI for dairy products in July this year to December 2019 made up 106.0% with an average monthly increase of the index by 0.8%.

From dairy products, prices increased over the month for pasteurized milk (0.2%), cottage cheese and sour cream (0.1% each), and since the beginning of the year - for kefir, yogurt (9.1%) and fresh milk (8.0 %). At the same time, a slight decrease in prices for fresh milk and cottage cheese was recorded in July (0.1% and 0.4%, respectively).

Price changes for fruit and vegetable products are traditionally most subject to significant fluctuations. So, during January-July 2020, the maximum rise in prices for the month was noted in April (by 6.6%), and a decrease in June (by 8.4%). At the same time, the average price level for these products in July of this year decreased in December last year by 6.2%.

Among fruit and vegetable products, the most pronounced decrease in prices was for watermelons (by 28.9%), melons (by 21.9%), cucumbers (by 20.2%), bell peppers (by 20.1%), apples (by 18 , 6%), bananas (15.0%) and tomatoes (14.3%). In addition, in a month dried apricots (dried apricots) became cheaper by 8.4%, potatoes - by 1.4%, onions - by 0.3%. At the same time, prices were increased for carrots - by 1.7%, garlic - by 1.3% and cabbage - by 0.9%.

Compared to the end of 2019, the leaders in price growth belong to lemons (by 151.9%), potatoes (by 36.3%) and grapes (14.8%). Significantly cheaper than in December 2019, sold bell peppers (by 83.2%), fresh cucumbers (by 81.8%) and tomatoes (by 75.2%).

Sugar, tea and other products increased in price from March to May more significantly than in other months (in the range from 1.0% to 1.6%), and in July they became more expensive by 0.2%. The CPI for this group of goods in July this year to December 2019 made up 105.1%, with an average monthly growth of the index by 0.7%.

Prices for granulated sugar in July of this year increased by 0.5% (since the beginning of the year - by 4.5%), refined sugar - by 0.4% (6.1%). Over the month, confectionery increased in price by 0.1% (since the beginning of the year 5.6%), coffee and tea - unchanged (since the beginning of the year 4.6%), other food products (salt, spices, seasonings, etc.) - also by 0.2% (3.8%).

The most significant monthly price increases for oil and fats were observed during March-May 2020, and the minimum monthly price increases were recorded in January. The average monthly CPI growth in this group of goods in January-July made up 0.8%. Since the beginning of the year, prices for fat and oil products have risen by 5.9% on average.

In July 2020, vegetable oils became more expensive by 0.2% over the month (at the same time, sunflower oil - rose 0.3%, cottonseed oil - 0.2%), prices for margarine and butter did not change, animal and rendered fats increased in price by 0.2%.

Since the beginning of the year, butter and margarine have increased in price by 7.2%, animal and rendered fats - by 6.3%, vegetable oils - by 5.5%.

As for the changes in consumer prices for the main groups of food products in annual terms, eggs (52.7%) continue to hold the lead in price growth relative to the corresponding month of last year

Analysis of the structure of the influence of changes in prices of the main groups of food products on the value of the consolidated CPI for the month showed that the general decrease in the level of prices in this enlarged group is associated with their decrease for fruits and vegetables and eggs, which, in turn, contributed to a decrease in the consolidated indicator by 0.63 p.p. The increase in prices for other observed groups of food products in total influenced the growth of the consolidated CPI by 0.09 p.p. Thus, price changes in food products in total ensured a decrease in the consolidated CPI by 0.54 p.p.

In the structure of the consolidated CPI growth by December 2019, the most significant share of food products belongs to meat, poultry and fish (0.81 p.p.), as well as bread products (0.80 p.p.), due to the rise in sugar prices , tea and spices, the consolidated CPI by December 2019 increased by 0.30 p.p., dairy products - by 0.21 p.p., butter and fats - by 0.17 p.p.

As for the consolidated CPI in annual terms, among food products, the most significant contribution to the growth of the aggregate indicator was made by meat, poultry and fish (2.38 p.p.), bakery products (2.18 p.p.), and sugar, tea and other products (0.67 p.p.).

In July 2020, non-food products became more expensive by 0.5% on average. Compared to December 2019, the increase in prices for goods of this group made up 4.1%, in July 2019 - 9.4%. The average monthly CPI growth for non-food products in January-July 2020 was 0,6 %.

In July 2020, of the main observed groups of non-food products, the most significant price increases were noted for matches (4.2%), fuel for cars (2.5%), building materials (1.3%), as well as medicines and tobacco products. (0.6% each).

The leader in price growth relative to December 2019 belongs to matches (69.6%). Then, in decreasing order, there are printed products (13.6%), medicines (8.4%), personal transport (8.1%), as well as tobacco products, detergents and cleaning products (6.7%). In annual terms, the prices for matches (1.7 times), books, newspapers and magazines (16.6%), jewelry (15.6%) and medicines (15.6%) rose more than others.

As for the contribution of price changes of the main groups of nonfood products to the increase in the consolidated CPI for the month, at the end of July 2020, the most significant contribution, taking into account the specific weight, was made by the increase in prices for fuel for cars (0.06 p.p.) and building materials. (0.04 p.p.). Due to the rise in prices for clothing, footwear, fabrics and yarn, the aggregate indicator increased by 0.02 p.p. in total, detergents and cleaning products, personal hygiene products - by 0.01 p.p., basic household goods and electrical appliances, communications in total added to it another 0.01 p.p., medicines - 0.02 p.p. The increase in prices for other groups of non-food products added about 0.01 p.p.

Among the main groups of non-food products, the growth in the consolidated CPI in July this year against December 2019 was most significantly influenced by the growth in prices for clothing, footwear, fabrics and yarn (0.41 p.p.), medicines (0.24 p.p.). ), construction materials (0.23 p.p.), personal hygiene products, detergents and cleaning products (0.18 p.p.). Due to the decrease in prices for fuel for cars, the aggregate indicator decreased by 0.09 p.p.

Leadership in terms of contribution to the growth of the consolidated CPI in annual terms among non-food products belongs to clothing and footwear (0.87 p.p.). Also, a significant contribution was made by price changes for medicines (0.42 p.p.), building materials (0.36 p.p.), personal hygiene products, detergents and cleaning products (0.31 p.p.), fuel for cars (0.23 p.p.).

In July 2020, the increase in tariffs for paid services to the population for the month made up 0.4%, with an average monthly increase in the CPI in this area for January-July 2020 by 0.5%. Compared to the end of 2019, the increase in tariffs was 3.6%, and in annual terms - 13,0 %.

Of the observed types of paid services to the population, passenger transport services became more expensive in July by 1.4%, including air - by 0.7% (due to changes in the euro exchange rate against the national currency), automobile - by 1.8%, railway - by 0.9% (due to an increase in tariffs for interstate traffic).

In general, in January-July 2020, the prices for the services of preschool educational organizations (15.2%), for recreation (8.2%), as well as consumer services (5.9%) rose more significantly than others. Healthcare services became more expensive than at the end of last year by 6.0%, passenger transport - by 4.9% (including air - by 9.7%, automobile - by 4.7%, rail - by 3.4%), cultural institutions - by 4.0%.

As for the change in tariffs for paid services to the population in annual terms, among the main observed groups, their most noticeable growth was registered for educational services (17.6%), housing and communal services (16.4%), services of preschool educational organizations ( 15.2%), household (13.7%), medical (12.4%), as well as for passenger transport services (14.2%).

Assessing the contribution of changes in tariffs for the main groups of services to the increase in the consolidated CPI for July 2020, we can say that the most significant contribution was made by the increase in tariffs in the field of passenger transport (0.05 p.p.), for medical services and consumer services (0.02 p.p.).

Of the main observed types of paid services to the population, the contribution of the increase in tariffs for household services (0.27 p.p.) to the increase in the consolidated CPI relative to the end of 2019 was more significant. In addition, a significant contribution was made by an increase in the cost of medical services (0.15 p.p.), as well as passenger transport services (0.15 p.p.), state preschool educational organizations (0.08 p.p.) and educational services (0.07 p.p.).

As for the impact on the growth of the aggregate indicator in annual terms, the leading positions continue to be held by housing and communal services (1.0 p.p.), household services (0.62 p.p.), passenger transport (0.44 p.p.). p.), education (0.35 p.p.), as well as medical services (0.31 p.p.).

 
 

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